The consensus now is 5 to 6 percent GDP growth rate for the whole year. But there are economists who are more aggressive and more optimistic, and say the target should be raised further.
It's understandable for the government to be conservative in setting growth targets because these are used in determining, for example, the amount of tax revenues that may be raised in a given period. For purposes like that, official targets must be conservative.
But what is wrong with setting fighting targets like the magical 7 percent - the Philippine economy already breached that number in the first quarter - not for tax forecast or budget purposes, but for driving confidence and fueling optimism among the different sectors of the economy, including the people?
Students are taught and encouraged to aim high, so they will be driven to work hard, persevere and maximize their talent to realize their dreams. The result: tycoons who started peddling wares on the streets, then built business empires.
The Philippine economy has beaten conservative forecasts before. Remittances from overseas Filipinos were projected to decline in 2009 because of the global financial crisis. Instead, remittances reached more than $17 billion. The economy was forecast to plunge into recession, also because of the crisis. Instead, it grew by 1.1 percent in 2009.
Nobody expected the economy to grow by 7.3 percent during the first quarter, the highest first-quarter growth in nearly three decades. That performance has injected more optimism on the economy's outlook for the rest of the year.
Add to that the heightened confidence of the business sector, and the general atmosphere of optimism among Filipinos following the peaceful and orderly elections. Add also the continuing increase in remittances, and the impact of the global recovery, which has already raised exports by double-digit rates.
In light of these developments, setting growth targets higher than the official forecast is not conservative. It is realistic, but more important, it is inspiring, morale-boosting.
